Members of the chat community were warned a week ago that it was time to sell BTC and ETH. There were a number of reasons to see that a top was approaching in BTC. To name a few:
- The chart geometry was such that pricetime was at the end of a long term setup in both time and price
- There was a terribly bearish divergence shown on a number of momentum indicators
- There are 5 clearly visible waves up from the 1840 low
As for the wave count, I do not consider myself an expert, professional wave counter. It is not my main trading tool. However, I know the basic rules, and I can count to 5.
I am told that the trading desk of Goldman believes that this was the end of a wave 5 of a larger degree. I have included the count I believe they have adopted. If that count is true, then that implies that they believe the correction that is in progress will be deeper, and longer-lasting, than most coin traders have contemplated.
I don’t know Goldman is correct, but they certainly could be.
First however, I will show you two separate geometric setups that show BTC hitting a 5th arc:
These two charts alone tell us pretty unambiguously that it is time for BTC to correct. I hope that most in our chat community took advantage of the early warning and exited in a timely manner.
In addition to these geometric warnings, there was the wave counts. There are (2) identifiable 5 impulse wave structures visible starting from the 8/2016 low. This first chart suggests a possible wave count, but is NOT the most likely wave count (imho):
The reason I do not feel the count above is ‘the best’ is because it does not consider the chart prior to August 2016. There were several major rallies in the past, including (2) significant highs in 2013, at 266 and 1200. These could easily have been part of a completed wave 1, culminating at the 1200 high. If so, then this chart would be better represented as this:
This count, I believe, is the count that Goldman has decided on. It is perhaps the most bearish count possible for bitcoin, as it suggests that the just-begun down wave is going to correct the entire move up, from where is started, at what? 1-2 cents per coin??? If so, then the wave could be calamitous, to say the very least. [Note: there other possible wave counts not mentioned here, for the sake of brevity.]
But this count/view has breathtakingly bearish implications for cryptocurrencies in general, does it not? And how can such overall bearishness be possible? Intuitively this seems 100% unreasonable.
Consider: cryptocurrencies are only just beginning to hit their stride. Blockchains are about to transform society in ways that are going to be thoroughly disruptive to existing status quos and social orders, and thoroughly liberating for humanity at the same time. This hardly seems to be even remotely debatable to those who have been following the saga.
I believe it is self-evident, an axiom almost, that this is just the beginning of the blockchain revolution. It is here to stay – it is going to transform EVERYTHING and it will do it with blinding speed.
So how to reconcile this global trans-formative vision with such a breathtakingly bearish wave count as depicted above? IMHO, there is at least one reasonable explanation which would accommodate both realities (assuming my previous postulates are accurate). To wit, while Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase that will take it significantly lower, another coin is poised to take its place and lead the world to a promised land of sorts. Joshua led the hebrews across the Jordan River when Moses faltered right?
There are several other coins which could fill such a leadership role. Ethereum was thought to be that coin as recently as a year ago. It was commonplace then to talk of the ‘flippening’ when Ethereum would become the dominant coin. Litecoin was/is another possibility that some believe will assume that leadership role.
I have no crystal ball and my thought might not prove accurate – I am well aware of that. But I have not been able to shake my growing suspicion that Bitcoin Cash is the coin best suited to take that role. I was asked recently by a member of our chat community why I cling to a belief in Bitcoin Cash. I gave a short answer to him then, which is far better answered by this blog post in its entirety.
Even the most stalwart bitcoin evangelists have always known that bitcoin might yield its position to a new (and better) coin at some point in the future. This was neither controversial nor unexpected. It was obvious. There are several coins that are arguably “better”. Bitcoin Cash is certainly one of them. Now, perhaps, we are about to find out if humanity will see this ‘flippening” occur in the not-distant future.
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.
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