Some readers may recall that a few days back I suggested ~ 6/25 was a likely time-frame for the cryptocoins correction to end.  After several days it still feels that way.  Many coins have been struggling and unable to mount a sustained attack on their resistances (DASH, ETH), and others successfully push through and then stop as if they are exhausted (LTC).

Bitcoin remains the menacing unchained dog in the corner that you just can’t completely ignore.  It is sitting there quietly but you always wonder if he is going to suddenly pounce.  I was mildly confident that Bitcoin would drop 2 days ago, but it did not.  Several coins began stirring with hope yesterday, but stopped at resistance.

There remain several reasons to believe that this slow-motion correction will either end (or accelerate) in the next 2 days.  There are significant energy points approaching.  While the eternal optimist in me wants to believe that rainbows, butterflies and unicorns are soon to appear, the realist in me who has fought (and lost) many times knows to be more careful.

Corrections often end with a violent move down, but not always.  Sometimes they just end because building buying pressure just pops the cork off the champagne bottle.

I don’t know how this one will end.  But I strongly advise that those who are leveraged on the long side take some of that leverage off the table.  In my experience it is MUCH better to miss part of a rally than to get liquidated in a margin call.  A friend of mine was wiped out last March when ETH crashed from $52 to $20 all within the space of a single 15 minute candle.  And he was a pretty good analyst!  He got defeated by greed. He must have been bitter when ETH recovered within a day…

[NEWS FLASH]
https://blog.gdax.com/eth-usd-trading-update-2-216a3b946ef6
Per this blog post, which looks genuine, GDAX will personally eat all the losses incurred during the ETH crash the other day.  Are they just wealthy beyond all measure, did men in black show up at their home or office and make them an offer they can’t refuse, or is the Plunge Protection Team now backstopping ETH??  Curious minds would love to know.

DASH

dash.jpg

DASH has been behaving well.  This chart is just a bit worrying as there is an energy point fast approaching and pricetime is below the arc.  But still, that 1×1 has been pretty strong support.

ETC

etc.jpg

Before I slept last night I saw that ETC was testing that arc.  I was expecting to see it had gotten through it when I awoke.  But it is still at that same arc.  As always when a market is sitting on resistance, like sitting on a fence, it could fall either way.

ETH

eth.jpg

The long term ETH chart is unchanged since yesterday, so here is a short term chart.  It has been testing the top of square unsuccessfully since last night.  A 3rd arc approaches. I advise a bit of caution here.  Particularly if you are leveraged.  [This is not a sell advisory.  Just a warning to be cautious.]

XBT

xbt.jpg

On a short term chart, XBT got through an arc pair, and then just lied down like exhausted.  The yellow line indicates a semi-significant energy point due tomorrow (6/25 10am China time).  This is one of 3 energy points due tomorrow.  Will it be a low, or an acceleration?  Lets see what happens in the interim before we guess.

XLM

xlm.jpg

XLM’s giveaway approaches, and people have been asking what effect that will have on price.  I believe that the giveaway was factored into the price weeks ago.  I see that on this long term chart the coin is approaching the end of the 2nd arc pair.  A rally will likely begin sometime after it exits.  Here is a short term look at the chart:

xlm2.jpg

A similar picture.  The arc that stopped an earlier rally is almost successfully traversed.   This chart is a bit exciting…

XRP

xrp.jpg

XRP has been climbing a 2nd arc pair of a bear setup all day yesterday.  It is at the top of square now.  It will be great news if they can get above it.  We will see…

Happy trading!

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

 

 

 

 

Categories: BitcoinEthereumRipple

4 Comments

Bob · June 24, 2017 at 8:28 pm

I thought your blog two days ago was a pretty good call, didn’t understand why you came back on it with mediocre-looking short-term charts. I think the bear-setup on your charts work out really well. Most of them are spot on.

Your analysis usually is pretty mathematical, like the blog title its how geometric thinking. Only when emotions are kind of visible in the blog is when you make a wrong call.

Really love your insights though 🙂

    Bob · June 24, 2017 at 8:29 pm

    *it shows

    Jim Fredrickson · June 25, 2017 at 12:19 am

    I’m not clear on the specifics, but it sounds like you prefer the longer term charts. I do too actually. But when it is time to look for tops or bottoms there isn’t much choice but to get in to the short term is there? As soon as the correction ends I promise to get back to longer term charts again. As for the emotion, yes, it is true. As hard as I try to fight it, fear and greed grip me at moments as well. I try not to let them affect my column, but maybe they do from time to time….

      Bob · June 25, 2017 at 12:44 am

      I know, we’re all in an emotional state from time to time whilst trading, it’s part of the deal. I loved your blog about doubling, it portrays the way I think. However, we all know doubling $1k to $2k is not the same as $500k to $1m, emotionally. We have to get over it to do it again and again to get to our financial goals though.

      I don’t know about the short-term highs or lows, I guess I do take the short-term tops and bottoms for granted, focussing on the grand scheme of things. I feel it makes the doubling easier. It might take longer (or shorter, chasing short-term goals proved to be a pain), but I’m trying not to have to catch falling knives and kind of be able to plan every move. When zooming out, it’s not about pennies anyway 🙂

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