Every boxer has a plan until they get hit
In the world of professional boxing there is a proverb: “Everyone has a plan until they get hit.” The idea is that it behooves the fighter to remember that his opponent is a skillful living being with every intention of knocking him out. If he does not adapt to the curves he is thrown, he is likely in for a very rough day.
Trading is a bit like that. You wake up and look at the charts and see a hundred reasons to believe your favorite coin is going up today. So you buy and you tell your friends they should buy too. But then, it stops moving up, and starts to move down. At some point you realize you may have been wrong. You are underwater now, but the loss is still manageable. Like the boxer who has just been hit hard in the gut and is having trouble breathing, you realize your plan isn’t working out as well as you had hoped and expected. What should you do? Stick with the plan? Change it?
What if it was just a lucky shot, and the original plan can still win the fight?
There is rarely a clear answer to that question in the moment. If you exit your long position, you may see later you sold at the low of the day and took a loss for nothing. Conversely, if you exit now, your account has only a small loss, and you might be able to buy the coins back in a day or two for significantly less. The small loss today will lead to a greater profit tomorrow. This is a dilemma every trader is intimately familiar with.
Many traders have been long for several days now. Some are still long since the high of their favorite coins. If they are long term investors the plan is still a good one. In a year or two or three they will probably be way ahead. On the other hand, if they are traders, as I assume most of my readers are, then they can see that their plan isn’t working as they hoped and expected. The market has been moving sideways to down for 2 weeks. They are having trouble sleeping at night and sometimes get up in the middle of the night to check the charts. Their spouse worries about their health.
I wish I had THE answer, but the best I can do is speak to probabilities. I have been suggesting for sometime now that the market might finally bottom on the 25th, which is today. It still seems possible that could prove to be the case, but it has taken so long for the downturn to gather speed, that I now doubt that the low will happen today. Geometry on the chart involves an intricate relationship of time and price, and price just hasn’t moved enough in relation to time IMHO. This is particularly in regard to Bitcoin itself, but many of the other coins are in the same boat.
So, I now think it more likely that the bottom will occur ~ the 28th. There are many significant energy points on that day, just as there are several today.
While I prefer to show long-term charts, I will refer again to short-term charts as I look for likely combinations of energy points and support.
ETC It may bounce soon. It is just hard to imagine it rallying hard while the rest of the market is in the doldrums. In the event that the 3rd arc fails, support will be strong ~ $13 on the 28th.
When that 1st red arc failed, the selloff resumed hard and fast. Support will be strong ~$255 on the 26th.
When the 2nd arc of the 2nd pair failed, selling accelerated. That 3rd arc will likely be hit today ~ $40.5. There are many reasons on that chart to harbor optimism that point may provide solid support. We will see…
As of this writing the 3rd arc pair is supporting XBT. However, for a variety of reasons I don’t think this is enough of a fall to correct XBT. A fall to the 5th arc, to ~$2200 on the 26th would seem more secure. But even then, it would be a relatively mild correction. We will see.
The 3rd arc pair has already yielded in this chart, so it seems a safe bet that the 5th arc will be tested. The 2 most likely places are circled above. The first is tomorrow, the 26th, and the 2nd is on the 28th.
The 4th arc pair above may provide support, but it seems a bit unlikely, given the direction of the overall market. In the event that the arc fails, the 5th arc may be met tomorrow ~ $42.
XRP fell sharply as soon as it detached from that 1st arc pair. The 2nd has provided support, but the 1st of the pair has already revealed it is vulnerable. At a minimum I expect the 2nd arc of the pair to be tested. If that 2nd arc fails, expect a test of the 3rd pair ~.23, on the 26th.
ZEC It sure looks like the 2nd arc pair is going to fail. If that happens support will be strong at the 3rd pair ~ $300. However the next big energy point is on the 28th. If the 3rd arc fails today, the 5th arc pair will likely be tested all the way down to $220. We will have to wait and see if the 3rd arc holds before we assume that such a large fall will happen, of course.
Happy trading!