By Jim Fredrickson
Our last blog went way out on a limb and forecast that the BTC bear market would likely end by the end of March 2018. After a horrendous beating for 3 months, even many members of the geometric thinking trading community remain skeptical.
The extremes of bull and bear markets are times when no one believes the cycles will end. For example, in December 2017 we were warning people to take profits for 2 weeks before the high. (Indeed, we were a bit early, taking profits at $18k). But at that time there were many traders sure that the market was going to $25k, for the simple reason that it seemed the momentum would never end.
Similarly, after falling so far so fast, there are many traders who fear that the coins might actually go to $0. Perhaps, they fear, this time the doomsayers are correct, and the end of crypto has arrived. Fear is hard to ignore after such a brutal bear cycle.
It was in this environment that we forecasted the end of the bear market by the end of March.
“The whole world is watching and waiting for the next bull market to begin. When it gets going again there probably won’t be enough coins to satisfy demand”
“Fear is hard to ignore after such a brutal bear cycle.”
As you can see from the chart above, (so far) the low was on 3/31/2018. Of course it goes without saying that it is possible that there is another shoe waiting to fall. But we don’t believe that is the case. It seems much more likely (imho) that a tremendous trade opportunity is beckoning to those with the foresight to grab it.
We will see….
Bitcoin Cash also made a low on 3/31. It’s rise since then has been tentative and it seems too soon to pop the champagne. However, imho, it is likely that the bear market is over, but the vast majority of traders don’t yet believe it and are too scared to commit to it. If we are correct, that will change soon.
We will see soon enough…
Litecoin has made a similar chart as it’s peers. It made a low on 3/31and is trading tentatively above support as it waits for traders to lose their fear and act on the buy signals which in our opinion have already been generated. Time will tell…
Remember that the author is a trader who can and does make mistakes from time to time. Each trader must assume full responsibility for their own trades, based on his/her due diligence.