My apologies for not updating my blog in a few days. As you may be aware, my Trading School and Chat Channel have both been launched in the last week, and I have been decidedly busy. Hopefully things will settle down in the next week or two.
Some readers may remember my “Every boxer has a plan until he is hit” post. The idea is that the market is like a living opponent constantly and incessantly trying to take our money from us. It is VERY good at it. It is a heavyweight contender. If we want to survive long term in the ring with him, we must adjust constantly to the curves he throws us. A large part of that means recognizing when we are wrong, exiting and taking a loss if necessary. Like a poker player “folding” out of a hand, because you can’t “bluff” the market.
As my regular readers know, I was publicly on record believing the low was in. Yet a couple days ago I began to doubt that conviction; yesterday I saw support breaking and reversed my stance. (This was all discussed in real-time with subscribers to my Trading School Chat Channel.) Many of the chat subscribers joined me – we exited the markets just an hour so before the big breaks began. Now we are sitting pretty, looking forward to buying the lows. We would not be in this very comfortable position if I had not seen supports breaking, realized (and admitted) that my previous bullishness had been mistaken.
If you are not a subscriber to the Trading School Chat, and you missed the clues to sell yesterday, you might want to consider joining us.
ZEC has broken 3rd arc support. It may bounce off the 1×1 angle just below, but my guess is that any such bounce will be temporary and the 4th arc will be tested in the next few days ~ $175.
XRP is sitting on top of square support, and right at an energy point. This seems like an opportune moment for a bounce. However my optimism is tempered by the bearish sentiment throughout the market. It seems likely that the support will break, and the 4th arc below will get tested ~ .18
XLM has support ~.0144 ( 144 is a magic number). It would surprise me if it breaks below that level.
XBT has support ~ 2400. If that support breaks, as I suspect it will, then there will likely be a rather severe, if short-lived, fall to ~ 2000 over the next few days.
LTC hit the $57 high we targeted, then began selling off. Support after support has broken since then. There is strong support ~ 41 and a bounce there is likely. However if that support fails, a fall to ~ $34 is probable.
ETH supports keep breaking. It crossed the 1×1 a short while ago. There is strong support at ~ $168. If that support fails, it will get pretty ugly. But that does not seem very likely to me.
ETC is sitting on top of square support. Also at an energy point, so a bounce here can not be ruled out. It is my opinion that a bounce would be a good chance to exit (at a smaller loss) if you are still long. It seems likely that the 3rd arc will be tested ~ $13.
DASH has broken 1st arc pair support, so a test of the 2nd arc pair seems imminent. That support is ~ $175. If that support breaks, then the 3rd arc is ~ $150.
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.