Geometric Thinking Update
By Jim Fredrickson
The above might be one of the more outrageous forecasts WD Gann made. that he made such forecasts publicly, and was so often right, amazed people of his age and continues to amaze people more than 100 years later.
The obvious question that traders have been trying to figure out ever since is: “How did he do it?”
I have no way of knowing if I know how he actually did it. When I get to the next life I look forward to looking him up and asking him. In the meantime, I can say I feel like I might have a clue. Either I have re-discovered something Gann knew, or I have discovered something new. However, to give credit where it is due, I got a huge clue from re-reading Brad Cowan’s books (for the 3rd time). Brad Cowan may be even more amazing than Gann was.
The biggest question in my mind is, if I have simply re-discovered Gann’s method, (after more than 20 years of searching), “How could he possibly have done this without even the benefit of a calculator?” It seems quite difficult to imagine doing it by hand, so perhaps I have chanced upon a different method after all.
Regardless, to continue, on Feb 5 I posted in the GeometricThinking chatroom the following picture:
At 2:30 pm the same day, about 2 hours from the date/time, price had met the objective, so if my forecast is was to remain on target, price had to stop advancing there and wait anther 2 hours or so before breaking down.
At 2:30, the chart looked like this:
I must say, I had a strange sense of calm, as if I had a degree of confidence that price would meet that pricetime target. If so, I would be extremely grateful to Providence for answering decades of effort.
As an aside, I have learned more in the last 3 years than I learned in the decade previous. It seems that the Universe has rewarded the practice of giving information away, and serving others.
In 2017 I founded GeometricThinking and poured my heart and soul into the community. My stated goal was the emergence of a brain trust of traders. Regretfully most of the community at that time failed to embrace my efforts and that vision. But, I put aside my disappointment and continued serving those that persevered.
Since then, I have learned more than a dozen new tricks of the trade. But this most recent discovery, if we can refine it to an art, will be the answer I have dreamed of for 20 years now. 20 years ago I used to pray: “I know there is a beautiful mosaic hiding behind those candles. I just know it. I can dimly see the shadow of that mosaic. Please let me see it clearly before my time is finished here.”
Let’s see what happened in the next few hours.
” It seems that the Universe has rewarded the practice of giving information away, and serving others.“
These are the actual messages/pictures I posted in the chatroom.
Upon reviewing the math, I discovered my original forecast was off by 1 candle. The forecast should have been for 9300 at 4:00 (not 4:30). The end result was 9297 at 4:00.
I was overjoyed, but my joy was soon tempered, despite that forecast turning out to be a bulls-eye. It turned out that the forecasted swing was almost irrelevant, as a much larger swing followed soon thereafter.
Still, disappointment aside, the math had “worked” – the chart had respected it. I determined to try again.
Two days later
Two days later, on Feb 7, I posted the following in the GeometricThinking chatroom:
In hindsight, I should have seen that the forecasted price of 9866 was a few dollars higher than the previous high (an unlikely result) and re-checked my math. Had I done so, I would have seen there was a good fit a few dollars lower at 10.30. In any case, I waited to see what would happen in the next few hours.
It turned out that the swing high was at the 10.30 candle, just a few dollars shy of the forecasted price.
I considered that a win. My guess is that if I had been forecasting with 5 min bars I would have been correct to within 5 minutes (+/- 1 bar).
I have now proven to myself, and anyone that has been paying attention, that this forecasting technique works. It needs to be fine-tuned to understand how to use it most efficiently.
The discovery that moldy bread kills bacteria was not exactly the discovery of penicillin, yet penicillin followed and was huge. Likewise, the next step of understanding this process might be huge.
I will share the process with GeometricThinking subscribers, in the hope that together we can take it to the next stage.
This is not financial advice, just words of wisdom from someone who has seen it all over the past few decades. Do with it what you will. Happy Trading!