I’m not sure June 25 was the bitcoin low I thought it might be a week ago. It was an acceleration day for most, and perhaps a low, for many coins. In any case the wave 2 I have been speaking of for a couple weeks now is almost over. A number of coins have fallen enough that a wave 2 may have ended several hours ago. But BTC and ETH still seem to have not corrected enough, given the huge runup they had last month.
ZEC bounced nicely off the 2×1 angle. That could have been the low. If we get a close above the 1×1 overhead I might be inclined to think so. However, in the meantime I will wait for a test of the 3rd arc (circled), before I assume the worst is over.
XRP is also questionable. On the one hand, the 1st arc support broke. On the other hand, it is still above the top of the 1st square. That support could hold. Lets see what breaks first – the top of square, or the arc above.
I regret to say that LTC is also questionable. On the one hand, it regained a foothold above the 1st arc, which is bullish. On the other hand, that arc has signaled that it is weak because it was violated already. A test of the 1st arc pair below can’t be ruled out. A close above the 1×2 angle above would put some of those fears to rest.
Everyone was giddy when ETH went straight up without a break for so long, so fast and so far. But there is always a price to pay for irrational exuberance when the inevitable correction comes. I have a suspicion that the 3rd arc pair will break in the next day or two and the 5th arc will be tested ~ 180. We will see…
DASH has 5th arc support at a rather round number of $150. My guess is that it will bounce hard off there, if it gets there.
ETC is very interesting. There are 2 setups in the chart above. Perhaps you recall how the 2nd arc of the bull setup (big green arcs) repeatedly stopped the advance (highlighted in yellow). Well, we have had a close above that arc now, and price is again over that arc. This is certainly bullish. The lows (circled) were supported by the top of square of the larger bull setup as well. Overall, this chart looks pretty good. I just wish those lows did not violate both those arcs. Another close above that green arc would be a welcome sight.
XLM is yet another that is too close to call. It is just below 1×3 angle resistance, and at the very edge of the 2nd of the 2nd arc pair. Just a little bit higher on the close (in 4 hours or so) and I will be ready to declare victory here. But as you know, we can’t assume anything in this business. Today is distribution day for this coin. My guess is it will have a very wonderful run in the very near future. I just don’t know yet if it does not have just one more leg down first. If I were a betting man (as a trader, I guess I AM a betting man 🙂 I would guess that the low is probably in and start accumulating here.
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.