As my readers will know, I have been rather vocal about my belief that the worst was behind us in re the bitcoin low. We cheered having bought at $1890, and were looking forward to a rally that was going to at least $3100, then $3600, then $5000.
But that did not happen. Instead, the market was stopped just shy of $3000 and has languished ever since. There are 3 waves in this advance. And the 2 waves are almost exactly equal in size/price. (Wave 1 was $605, wave 2 was $652). This is possibly just an extended rest before a renewed rally. But it is also true that A and C waves of a corrective (ABC) rally are often the same size. These 2 waves are almost that… [Of course, the 2nd wave is a bit bigger, so it could be that another wave up will still occur, making 5 waves up complete, ~$3200.]
The market was given repeated opportunities to close above key resistance in the past few days and was turned back every time. Last night it closed above resistance, only to get thrown back under again. This is not the behavior I would expect, if my thinking (that a wave 3 had already begun), was correct.
As a result, barring resolution of this impasse, I have elected to take profits here and to put my money into some of the alts in the meantime…
There are a number of energy points at the end of the month. We may not see a resolution to this for 4-5 more days.
XBT is ambiguous. It could be preparing for one more leg up to $3200, or it could be about to begin another leg down. I hate moments like this when I don’t know what to do. So, what should we do? IMHO, take a rest on the sidelines and watch for awhile.
It pains me to say it, but there is a bear case to be made for ETH. The low punctured the 3rda rc pair, signaling a re-test was likely. And it is now moving sideways though that 3rd arc pair. It is entirely possible that upon exiting the supporting arcs that a fall to the 4th arc pair could still happen. We spoke about this prior to the low 9 days ago. It may yet still happen.
LTC is testing support at the moment. I would suggest a tight stop just below here might be a wise decision.
XLM480 is advancing after clearing an arc pair. Nice to see an alt following it’s own path for a change
XRP is sitting right support and resistance. It is resting on 3rd arc support and right on 1×1. I will be curious to see which breaks first, support or resistance? My guess is resistance will break, but we will see
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades