Geometric Thinking Update
By Jim Fredrickson
Jan 7 Update:
Apparently this forecast was quite mistaken. The NY traders came to their desks well-rested yesterday and decided to buy, not sell, as I had imagined.
There was talk that the impending war, which is almost certainly going to begin soon (and end very badly probably), would cause money to flow into Bitcoin. I discounted that notion but it seems entirely plausible now that this is exactly what happened / is happening.
I am left with the inescapable conclusion that what I thought was the end of wave 3 (of the move down from the June high), was in fact the end of wave 5. What I was trying to count as a wave 4 that was taking forever to end, was more likely the early stages of the next bull wave up. It pains me to say this, but as an old friend used to say: “True is true.”
Congrats to our chat member in the UK who got it right.
I have been twice mistaken about when this wave 4 had ended. The two arrows above indicate where I thought the wave may have ended. Both seemed quite reasonable at the time, but market action since then has suggested that wave 4 had not yet ended after all.
The Dec 24 EP I have spoken of many times in the past actually came on midnight, Dec 23/24, at that 2nd blue arrow. Since then, I thought that Dec 24 was likely the end of wave 4.
The recent strength of the past 36 hours challenged my thinking yet again, as I surveyed the 8 hour chart and realized that my presumption that wave 4 ended at that 2nd blue arrow may also be incorrect.
In truth, market action since Dec 24 has been too ambivalent to firmly support the argument that wave 5 down has already begun. So, where to from here?
Ending waves such as wave 4 is the only place one should see a diagonal, so I wondered if this might be a diagonal? I drew the trendlines and decided that this count is much more likely than my previous count.
IF this is correct, wave 4 is very close to ending. It may get to ~ 7600, though an end around 7500 would also make sense.
Everyone here understands that I may be mistaken, as I am bound by the same uncertainties as everyone else. Having said that I strongly urge everyone to get out of any long positions, particularly leveraged long positions today. I have a hunch that when NY institutional traders return to their trading desks tomorrow, after a long holiday rest, they will start selling. We will see….
I have a feeling that when NY institutional traders return to their trading desks tomorrow, after a long holiday rest, they will start selling.
This is not financial advice, just words of wisdom from someone who has seen it all over the past few decades. Do with it what you will. Happy Trading!