Been neglecting the longer-term charts

A friend and excellent chartist in his own right contacted me yesterday and suggested I do a bit more work with long-term charts.  Upon a moment’s reflection I realized he was correct.  It is so very easy to get caught up in the short-term charts.  Short term charts are great for entry and exit points.   But living in those charts has a major disadvantage though, in that you miss the bigger picture, and the bigger picture is the driving force.  So, thank you Ray.  Here are some longer-term charts:

Had I been more focused on long-term charts than I have been recently, I would not have missed such a red flag as this.  We already know ETH is in a correction, so this chart should come as no surprise.  The more important question now, is when/where does it stop?

For reasons a bit involved for discussion here, 6/25 is a date worth watching (dashed vertical line).  Purely for the sake of argument/discussion, I am going to suppose that it is the turn date, and match that date with chart geometry.

Assuming that the 1st arc pair of the bear setup breaks down ~275 (not a certainty by a long shot) then we can note that the 2nd arc pair meets the 6/25 date and the 1×3 angle from the bull setup (yellow line), at ~ 225.
Sizing the 1st square from the 8/15/15 low a fibonacci 610 days, we see that XBT hit the 1st arc pair and dropped hard.  As in the case of ETH, this should not come as a surprise now, since we already knew XBT was correcting.
BTCCNY has a very similar chart:
<img class=”alignnone size-full wp-image-2012″ src=”https://geometricthinking.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/xbt41.jpg” alt=”xbt4.jpg” width=”607″ height=”412″ />

The question again is, when/where does it stop?
Looking again at the 1st xbt chart, the small cluster of energy dates are at 6/25 and 6/26.  The 1×2 angle (red line) crosses there at ~ 1902.
Lets look at a bear setup on this chart:

Here we see that the 2nd arc pair is ~ 1860, which is pretty close to 1902…
This (relatively) small setup on an 8 hour chart shows that there was a 5th arc hammering away at XLM  for a while.  This information explains alot!!
Note that price is working it’s way through that arc now.  It will be free of that resistance sometime today, probably.

XRP turned on 6/13.It looked like it was free of that 4th arc pair, but it was pulled back in.  In any case, though we know to never say never in this business, it seems that price will divorce itself from that arc soon.

Having said that, a commenter mentioned earlier that it feels like the coin might be being manipulated, as it seems to keep coming back to .25.  I had not considered this possibility, but it seems possible, given that this coin has many features in common with fiat.  If it becomes clear that the ripple folks are playing games with the price, like JP Morgan has long been doing with silver and gold, I will stop trading it for good.  Lets wait and see though – it might just be chart dynamics.

Happy trading!